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[03 Jul 2009|09:45am] Washington Mystics at Atlanta Dream (-3.5, 165.5) The Dream have lost four of their last five after winning three of their first five. The weird thing is that at 4-6, they can say they're in a real slump, which is an incredible leap for a team that was 4-30 eight months ago. But how likely are the Dream to snap out of it while hosting Washington. The Mystics have the second-best record ATS in the league, including 4-1 ATS on the road. Their only road loss to the spread, however, was on their first trip to Atlanta, when all five Dream starters scored in double figures on the way to 93. The Mystics' last two road games are probably more indicative, in which they outshot and outrebounded the Stars, then the Sky. The Dream are perfect in a pattern of winning or losing depending on whether they win or lose on the boards. Since their last meeting on 6/19, the Dream and the Mystics have each made one under. Pick: Washington, over Chicago Sky at San Antonio Silver Stars (-6, 144.5) After the Sparks (3-0 home, 0-5 road), it's the Sky, Stars, and Mercury with the most lopsided home/away records. San Antonio is 3-1 at home, but 2-2 ATS with the two losses against Eastern teams. Chicago is 1-3 on the road, and 1-3 ATS), while hitting four overs. The Sky's road opponents are averaging 92.5 points in four games (Minnesota and Atlanta might be accustomed to 102 and 98 at home, but Connecticut scored 91). It's the end of a long homestand for the Stars, who haven't been on the road since 6/21. They didn't cover their most recent home game against Washington when the Mystics shot 50 percent outside the three-point arc — the Sky are the league leader with a .435 rate as a team. Picks: Chicago, over Thursday: 1-4, hearty congratulations to those who took the over on Detroit at New York, in which the Shock coughed up 20 turnovers while the Liberty shot a near-record number of threes; and to whomever bet Sacramento to snap out of a league-worst slide while on the end of a five-game trip. Season: 41-34-2 post comment

[03 Jul 2009|01:27am] If I made a list of the hottest actresses ever, it would include Gene Tierney, Michelle Pfeiffer, Amy Adams, and Evan Rachel Wood. I think I'd get along with Pfeiffer, who jokes that her husband the writer is more famous than she, and I loved Adams for her suggestive kidding recently with a tmz.com "reporter". But my brother Jon says that Evan Rachel Wood would drive me batshit crazy within an hour, based on some of the things she's said in regard to her relationship with Marilyn Manson, and what attracted her to him. So it's most ironic that Woody Allen chose Evan Rachel Wood for the female lead in "Whatever Works". Wood plays Melodie, a dim Southern beauty queen in her early 20s who drops unexpectedly into the life of Boris, a 60ish physicist fixed in routine and isolation who abuses his chess students and who wants his "pessimistic despair to pass for wisdom". I hint at this occasionally, but in case you're new here: Seven years ago, I was engaged to an Alabaman beauty in her early 20s who disrupted my routine and isolation, while I was abusing chess students and hoping my pessimistic despair would pass for wisdom. It wasn't easy for me to watch "Whatever Works". I mean, Woody Allen was already a creepy old hump 30 years ago when he set himself up with Mariel Hemingway in "Manhattan", and he's been making creepy jerkoff movies for himself ever since. Now he's made a creepy jerkoff movie where his surrogate (played by Larry David, on whom George Costanza is based; that is, the model for the biggest loser in history portrayed a character like me) is an unhappy old chess teacher who thinks he's smarter than everyone else, and limps around in a bathrobe while Evan Rachel Wood gets a job as a nanny and shares his ratty apartment. Her parents hate him. We have to wonder if my ex, who worked as a nanny in Birmingham, will see it. The Evan Rachel Wood character is lovely and charming, gets some of the best lines, and — in time for the happy ending — learned something. The chess scenes are authentic. The positions were legal, and h1 was always a white square! (I should've hung around to see if I recognized a chessplayer credited as a technical consultant.) In the first, the little boy playing black in a position like this gets mated by Nh6#, when Larry David calls him a stupid patzer while the kid's mom consoles him. Later, a mom confronts Boris at a bar because he smacked her son with a chessboard. I didn't smack the kid, Boris said, I upended it over his head to "wake him from his vegetable torpor". The mom goes on about how bright her son is, about which Boris insists is her *opinion*. Then a little girl plays Bxh7? in a position like and Boris goes off. Haven't we been over this a hundred times! This is a poisoned pawn! Poisoned! He plays …g6 to trap the bishop. "Whatever Works" was OK, but it isn't even the best movie ever made about a chess teacher — that was 1993's "Searching for Bobby Fischer" starring Ben Kingsley as my friend Bruce Pandolfini — and I didn't think it was as funny as "The Hangover", still in theaters. I've never seen "Curb Your Enthusiasm", so I can't compare Larry David in "Whatever Works" to Larry David in "Curb Your Enthusiasm". Evan Rachel Wood was the best thing about the movie. Melodie went through more changes and conflict than any other character, and Wood sold it. I'm accustomed to Patricia Clarkson being the best thing in her movies, but in this case, she wasn't. 3 comments|post comment

[02 Jul 2009|04:19pm] According to CinemaSource, Woody Allen's latest, "Whatever Works", stars Larry David as Boris Yelnikoff, who "spends his days insulting the small children unfortunate enough to study chess with him and irritating his still-loyal friends with his never-ending tirades about the worthlessness of absolutely everything." The San Francisco Chronicle reviewer said Yelnikoff is "a condescending self-proclaimed genius" who forms a "one chance in a billion bond" with "a kid from the Deep South who doesn't know much about anything". Lemme get this straight: Woody Allen made a movie about a smug chess teacher who verbally abuses his students, pisses off his friends with speeches about how everything sucks, and forms an unlikely relationship with clueless Southern girl Evan Rachel Wood. Uh… I imagine I'll skip the late Sacramento at Minnesota game to see this. CinemaSource reported that Allen wrote this 30 years ago for Zero Mostel. Otherwise I would've suspected Allen plagiarized my LiveJournal. post comment

[02 Jul 2009|09:54am] Part of the justification for the Budapest Defense — 1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e5!? — is that following 3. dxe5 Ng4 plus …Nxe5, the c4-pawn is a target for the e5-knight, while it's somewhat in the way of the f1-bishop. The Tennison Gambit — 1. Nf3 d5 2. e4?! dxe4 3. Ng5 — is not quite as reasoned for White as the Budapest is for Black because after White plays Nxe4, there's no pawn to hit on c5. The Center Counter — 1. e4 d5 — looks like an attacking move for Black, but in practice it leads to a sound defensive setup (for instance: 2. exd5 Qxd5 3. Nc3 Qa5 4. d4 c6 5. Nf3 Bg4 6. Bc4 e6 shows that the Center Counter is just a Caro-Kann in disguise). The Queen Pawn Countergambit — 1. e4 e5 2. Nf3 d5!? — is better than its reputation (openings earn their reputations from master-class players, who have forgotten what it's like to be a patzer) and can be recommended to students. Here's a jumble of transposition that I'd love to see in a chess game, but never will: 1. e4 "Best by test" — Fischer. 1. … d5 An immediate threatening move from Black! 2. Nf3 The best way to meet an enemy threat, if possible, is to ignore it. The beauty of entering Tennison's gambit by this move order is that the Center Counter zombies are 98 percent zoned in on 2. exd5, so they're bewildered by 2. Nf3. 2. … e5 We will never see the Queen Pawn Countergambit reached by this move order for two reasons: 1) It requires that White be quirky enough to play Tennison's gambit at move 2; 2) Wusses who play the Center Counter at move 1 are wired against putting the pawn on e5 where it can just be captured. From here, White could continue to ignore the danger to his e4-pawn and play: 3. d4 Black could nonchalantly leave his e5-pawn hanging with: 3. … Nf6 When a spectator just arriving could say "Aw, how boring. Another dull Petroff Defense." Three moves played, four distinct openings reached — Center Counter Defense, Tennison Gambit, Queen Pawn Countergambit, Petroff Defense — then 4. Nxe5 Nxe4 5. Nf3 Nf6 is a French Defense (1. e4 e6 2. d4 d5 3. exd5 exd5 4. Nf3 Nf6, normally), but that's just me being weird. post comment

[02 Jul 2009|07:35am] Connecticut at Indiana (-4.5, 141) A streak must end tonight in Indiana. Connecticut is 2-0 ATS on the road, while Indiana — the hottest team in the league — has covered six times in a row, including four at home. The Sun, like average teams tend to do, rise and fall to their opposition. In Chicago, the Sun shot .439 against .484. In New York, the Sun shot .357 against .321. In both those games, they hit under, but the Fever are 4-1 O/U at home. The Sun and Fever are nos. 1 and 2 in the league at turnover differential. The Fever make their difference by forcing the most turnovers; the Sun by taking the best care of the ball (Conn. averages 11 turnovers per game, almost three fewer than the second-best team). Picks: Indiana, over Detroit at New York (-4, 143) Last season's Eastern Conference finalists are in sixth and seventh places: Thursday's loser lands in the cellar. The teams are at the bottom of the East in scoring and assists, but they're the best in the conference in shooting percentage allowed. As a result, the Shock started 0-4 O/U, then needed Indiana and Atlanta — both good at home — to lift them to overs. New York has needed games at Phoenix, at Atlanta, and an overtime to make their three overs. The Shock got their first win of the Rick Mahorn Era Sunday against Sacramento, the worst defensive team in the league. In the Liberty's last win, they made 10 more field goals against the Dream than they average. New York is 1-2 ATS at home. Detroit is 0-3 ATS on the road. Pick: Under Sacramento at Minnesota (-5.5, 160) Minnesota is 9-1 O/U. Sacramento is 1-8 straight up, but 5-4 O/U because they concede the worst field goal percentage in the league. Minnesota has won three in a row behind Candice Wiggins' emergence as the team's big scorer since losing Seimone Augustus. Wiggins has 75 points in three games. In five losses, Sacramento gave up 17 to Jia Perkins (17.3 ppg), 18 to Shavonte Zellous (12.3 ppg), 26 to Becky Hammon (19.8 ppg), 12 to Vanessa Hayden (6.8 ppg), 30 to Seimone Augustus (21.0 ppg). Monarchs coach Jenny Boucek sounds like someone on a hot seat. For the first five games, she said she didn't have a full roster. For the last four games, the excuse has been they're still learning to play with each other. Sacramento is last in field goal shooting, and last in shooting allowed. Last in assists, 11th in assists allowed. They allow a points differential of -6.78; San Antonio is 12th at -3.57. Picks: Minnesota, over post comment

[02 Jul 2009|05:36am] I've been working at night and sleeping by day all my life, but I've always thought I'd prefer not to during the summer. When I wake up mid-afternoon during the summer, I'm icky and sweaty, and there's there's a long sunny day I'm missing. Wednesday I tried for the thousandth time to reset my internal clock by staying up all day. I've never managed to do that without crashing around noon, and waking up around midnight grumpier than usual. But early Wednesday morning, I determined to march to Starbucks and write about chess while drinking enough coffee to get me through lunchtime. I napped from 2 to 3, wrote from 3 to 6, watched Storm at Mercury, slept from 11 to 5, and I'm showered and ready for a Thursday morning breakfast. So I'll be darned. Staying up all day did succeed in putting myself on a "normal" schedule. Last time I slept at night and woke in the morning was in the Netherlands — merely had to fly nine hours east to trick my body into that one. *** I want to merge the Storm and the Mercury to make a basketball team. Sue Bird, Lauren Jackson, Swin Cash from the Storm in place of Nicole Ohlde, Kelly Mazzante, and either of the Mercury point guards. Then the starting five are Brooke Smith, Lauren Jackson, Diana Taurasi, Cappie Pondexter, and Sue Bird. That would seem to be next year's Statis Pro Basketball simulation project. Phoenix started the second half on an 11-0 run, extended the run to 25-7, and held on to beat Seattle Wednesday. Seattle's .414 field goal percentage was second-lowest allowed by Phoenix at home this season. The Storm's 29 field goals made was tied for fewest allowed by the Mercury. Diana Taurasi, a 6-0 swingwoman, blocked four shots — her 1.91 blocks per game average is third in the league. Cappie Pondexter led Phoenix with 22 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists. In Phoenix's seven wins, Pondexter has contributed 149 points, 45 rebounds, 39 assists. Seattle trailed 72-59 with 1 minute left in the third, but shot 7-of-7 to pull to 76-74 with 6:46 remaining in the game. The defensive lapse put Phoenix -2.5 in jeopardy, and the 93-81 final score beat the 173.5 total by one-half point, making Phoenix's fifth straight over, and nine of 11 for the season. At home, Phoenix is 6-1 ATS and 6-1 O/U. Wednesday: 1-0! breaking a string of four losing days in a row Season: 40-30-2 post comment

[01 Jul 2009|02:29pm] Found this in a thrift store for $2! The Apple "Picasso" art was from 1984, and a mint T-shirt sells for $50. I could flip this for a tidy profit, but I'm going to wear it to tatters. 1 comment|post comment

[01 Jul 2009|06:19am] The Amare Stoudemire to Golden State deal won't happen, partly because Stoudemire doesn't want to come, and mostly because Golden State doesn't want to include Stephen Curry in the mix. Too bad. The Suns would've done well to get a batch like Curry plus workhorse Andris Biedrins, shooter Marco Belinelli, and forward Brandan Wright (whom the Suns coveted in last year's draft) with which to rebuild. Stoudemire said there wouldn't be enough talent left in Oakland, so he preferred to stick around with Steve Nash. OK, Nash and whom? O'Neal, gone. Marion, gone. Diaw, Bell, JJohnson, gone. The Suns exercised their option on Louis Amundson. There you go, Stat. You and Nash and Louis Amundson. *** Seattle Storm at Phoenix Mercury (-2.5, 173.5) The Phoenix Mercury are glad to be home following a 1-2 road trip on which the Mercury were 1-2 ATS while giving up 96 points per game (Phoenix is 8-2 on the over). Seattle is coming off their worst loss of the season, a 27-point embarrassment in Los Angeles. The Storm have lost by their widest margins as road favorites. The Mercury have one of the best home records in the league — their sole home loss came against Seattle on 6/21, in which Phoenix hit their last under. In six wins, Seattle's Big Two — Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird — score 46.8 percent of their points (in three losses, 43.8%). In the Storm's win at Phoenix, Jackson and Bird combined for 49 percent of the scoring. Wednesday's game is the only game on the WNBA schedule. If Phoenix wins, they move ahead of Seattle into second place in the Western Conference. If Seattle wins, they move into a first-place tie with Minnesota. The total I have in mind is 173, for imagining Phoenix 90, Seattle 83. The total at one online sportsbook is 173.5 — that is too close for playing an under on Phoenix, where I've been wrong four times in a row. The problem has been that the Mercury aren't as good as I thought — I said at the end of the preseason that they're not very good, looking like 16-18 again. Then they won a flock of games at home, and looked really good doing so, which fooled me. Then they went on the road, and while I thought if they slowed down, they would slow down their opponents as well, but that clearly wasn't true. Laying the 2.5 is a lousy idea if Jackson goes for 40, but she and her teammates looked more than out of sorts Sunday — they looked like they were suffering from the proverbial road woes. Pick: Phoenix post comment

[28 Jun 2009|03:17am] I learned how it feels this week when action on a game goes lost. It distracts me from the basketball game while I imagine outcomes that would rescue the investment. That's unacceptable. I scanned the play-by-play log of Chicago 68, Washington 63 to see if Chicago ever had -6.5 covered. In other words, "the Sky won" was less important than "did they ever have a 7-point lead". That's just insane. I have accomplished an aim I've had in the dark of my mind for a long time: to get close to the edge that my father lived on, and peer over. Your perception of reality changes: Basketball games stop flowing. They start and stop like spikes on a graph. Dad used to close shop with the day's receipts and drive straight to Reno. I always wondered what he might've been thinking about during the drive. Richmond to Reno isn't a pleasant drive — it's long and cold, dark and mountainous, while Pop is thinking that he wants to drive faster. Saturday: 3-5 Season: 39-30-2 post comment

[27 Jun 2009|11:03pm] The SF Bay Area Pro-Am Basketball League began its 15th year last week in San Francisco. The league's heyday was in the '90s when NBA stars Jason Kidd and Gary Payton were involved, and it continues to attract NBA talent — Matt Barnes and Adonal Foyle will play this summer. The women's division is comprised of seven teams made up of players with experience ranging from American and overseas professional play to high school. Its biggest name is San Francisco Academy of Art coach Lindsey Yamasaki, a WNBA and NWBL veteran. Last November, Yamasaki said her playing days were over because she was through with staying in game condition, but the league is playing at Kezar Pavilion, which is the SFAA's home floor. League director Jon Greenberg said she won't play in every game. Golden State overcame a 14-point deficit with less than 10 minutes left, and beat defending champion San Francisco 85-84 in SF Bay Area Pro-Am League play Saturday. Golden State is 2-0. Jennifer Kioa had 20 points, 14 rebounds, and nine blocks for Golden State. Kioa, the Coast Conference player of the year for Foothill College, is bound for the University of Arizona after field offers from "everywhere", according to Foothill coach Jody Craig. Kioa said she wanted to play in the Pac-10 for its tradition, and that Arizona was recruiting her from the time she began at Foothill. From the Big West Conference, Pacific shooter Gretchen Tiernan contributed seven points and four assists for Golden State. "All the girls here are skilled, but we're faster than the other teams. Run and gun, that's my style." In the early game, Bay Pride beat Olympic Club 78-58. Center Joslyn Tinkle had 33 points and seven rebounds for Bay Pride. Tinkle, from Big Sky HS in Missoula, Mont., will be a freshman at Stanford. post comment

[27 Jun 2009|10:33am] New York Liberty at Indiana Fever (-7, 141) The Fever won the first game of the home-and-home in overtime, in which two trends continued: The Liberty are 0-5 when turning the ball over 17 times or more, while the Fever are 4-0 when they win on the boards. Last year's Liberty were 1-1 avenging home losses, but the Fever have won 10 of 12 against the Lib, and have covered in seven of the last eight. The Fever are looking to repeat the home-and-home sweep they achieved against Detroit, the other sub-.500 Eastern team. The Fever need one more win to equal their longest streak ever — six — while they've covered in each of the five. If not for the overtime yesterday, the Liberty were in line to make a fifth under in seven, the Fever the third under in five. The Liberty shoot poorly on the road except against teams with whom they could exchange layups (Phoenix, Atlanta). Picks: Indiana, under Washington Mystics at Chicago Sky (-6.5, 151) One week ago, in Chicago at Washington -5.5, the home team was the day's darling for WNBA handicappers, some of whom believed the Mystics were a strong enough play to merit two units. When the Sky won the second quarter 26-11 behind 17 points from the bench to lead 39-29 at half, confident Mystics backers took the -7.5 second half. The Mystics romped 52-33 in the second half, so they who picked Washington against the spread and the over for the game plus the second half won all four wagers. Besides the revenge motive, the Sky are unbeaten at home, 2-1 ATS, with two overs. Picks: Chicago, over Atlanta at Connecticut (-8, 157) The winner lands in fourth place in the East. Atlanta, second in the league in scoring at 83 points per game, falls off to 70 per game on the road, while Connecticut allows the fewest points off all. However, Atlanta's one road win was in Connecticut two weeks ago. Since then, the Sun have won two at home, including a 30-point revenge win against Chicago. Connecticut, one of the league's worst shooting teams, has improved to .433 in two home wins (winning by 43 combined). The Sun have had five days of rest, while the Dream are playing back-to-back. Last time the Dream played home-and-away, they gave up 25 turnovers in a loss at Washington. At home, the Sun have totaled according to the habits of the visitors: under with the Stars, over with the Sky, under with the Liberty. The Dream are mostly an over team, except on the road, but at Mohegan last year, these teams hit 360 in two games. Picks: Connecticut, over Phoenix at Minnesota (+2, 178.5) The Mercury bounced back from two losses with a road win in Washington, while making three more overs. The Lynx's scoring average has dropped to 65 points per game after a six games averaging 87. Candice Wiggins has stepped up to fill the main scoring role for Minnesota, dropping 25 on the Liberty Tuesday. Minnesota was 1-2 in three revenge games last season, including a 96-87 loss to Phoenix at home. Minnesota has additional revenge motive in that it was during their 104-80 loss in Phoenix that All-Star Seimone Augustus went down with a season-ending injury. I've been wrong three times in a row selecting under on Phoenix games, and figured that they're making all these overs for sharing their energy with opponents. Even so, in Saturday's game, I see a score about 90-80. Picks: Phoenix, under Friday: 4-4 (Disappointing — had the under spoiled by overtime in New York, and what happened to the Storm?) Season: 36-25-2 post comment

[26 Jun 2009|09:33am] Twenty-five years ago I replayed the 1980-1 Phoenix Suns season with Statis Pro Basketball, and months ago began to prove that the 2008 Phoenix Mercury would've won more games if Brooke Smith played more. I've found that I had LOTS more time on my hands 25 years ago. My friend Petrel finds time for his Statis Pro Basketball project, in which one of the players under simulation is blogging her team's season. I think statispro.blogspot.com is groovy, but then I used to conduct free throw contests with Statis Pro, which is pretty far out there. *** I see where I've been wrong forecasting three straight unders for the Phoenix Mercury, and losing all three: not accounting for the Mercury encouraging their opponents to fly with them. I correctly picked Seattle to beat Phoenix Sunday, but blew the under because Phoenix couldn't stop Seattle at all. The Mercury missed their scoring average again at San Antonio on Tuesday, but allowed the Stars to score 91. On Thursday, the Mystics and Mercury ran back and forth, often trading layups. Detroit Shock at Atlanta Dream (-2, 153) The defending champion Detroit Shock are 1-4, and we don't have to look too far back to find another WNBA titlist that started so poorly. Phoenix won in 2007, lost four of five games to begin 2008, and finished out of the playoffs. The 2008 Mercury and 2009 Shock both made coaching changes after the championship year. Both teams lost one or more key players from the championship team. Since he took over, coach Rick Mahorn's Shock are 0-2. Bettors who play halves will note the Shock losing second halves by scores of 45-22 and 41-27. In losing three straight, the Shock have given up 57 turnovers. The Shock are last in the league in scoring, making four unders until going over 139.5 in their most recent game Sunday. Detroit is shooting .376 on the road. The Dream are most erratic in their field goal defense: They have allowed three opponents to shoot better than .500, losing each game straight and ATS, while making three overs. They have held four opponents under .400, where they were 3-1 ATS and would be 3-1 on the under if not for two overtimes on opening night. Even if the Dream bring their preferred defense, I auger the Dream will take advantage of a shorthanded Shock on the other end. Picks: Atlanta, over Indiana Fever at New York Liberty (-2, 141.5) For the New York Liberty, it's a matter of taking care of the ball. In four losses, the Liberty average 17 turnovers per game. In one win, New York made nine turnovers. In their second win, they coughed up 19 turnovers, but made up for that by shooting .574. Indiana's opponents average a league-worst 20 turnovers per game. In the five games where New York made 13 turnovers or more, they made three unders. The two overs were against Phoenix and their 58 percent shooting night against Atlanta. In two road games, Indiana has coerced 46 turnovers. Both games would've resulted in unders if not for playing two overtimes on opening night. Individual contrasts: Fever center Ebony Hoffman is sixth in the league in steals. Liberty center Janel McCarville is fifth in the league in turnovers. New York forward Cathrine Kraayeveld is ninth in miscues; Indiana forward Tamika Catchings is third in takeaways. Picks: Indiana, under Sacramento Monarchs at San Antonio Silver Stars (-6, 144) The Silver Stars and Monarchs are 12th and 13th in the WNBA in scoring differential (but San Antonio lost two games by 14 points while Becky Hammon and Vickie Johnson were out). San Antonio is 2-0 at home, the last-place Monarchs 0-3 on the road. The Monarchs allow a .451 shooting percentage, while the Stars have only managed .405 on their own. Once the Stars shot better than .450 — they won straight up and ATS, and hit the over. San Antonio opponents shoot .411 but average 77 points per game. Connecticut managed 71 points against San Antonio while shooting 39 percent, but pulled an offensive rebound rate of 30 percent. Sacramento is the second-worst shooting team in the league and the best rebounding team — their offensive rebound rate over three games is 34 percent. I typed "over" before I knew what the number was. Picks: San Antonio, over Los Angeles Sparks at Seattle Storm (-10, 138.5) Seattle dominates lower-tier teams in the conference by 19 points per game, covering -7 and -10 while making two overs. Los Angeles hasn't beaten anyone but last-place teams — as an underdog, they have missed covering by 2.5 and 9 points. Seattle leads the league in points differential and is best about field goal percentage allowed. The Storm have held five opponents under 72, but among those five games are their two losses to the spread and their two unders. The Sparks have been under 136 four times. If Seattle covers the spread and goes over, the average margin is 16 points. Once Los Angeles lost to the spread and hit the over, when the margin was 11. It's easy to see a score like 71-60 or 74-62, but I have a hunch Seattle could have 50 at halftime. Picks: Seattle, over post comment

[26 Jun 2009|05:29am] When the Phoenix Suns drafted forward Taylor Griffin with the 48th pick of the 2009 NBA draft, some wiseguy said: "For the second year in a row, the Phoenix Suns pick the weaker brother." Last year, the Suns got Robin Lopez instead of Brook. Except for Dick Van Arsdale — The Original Sun — who went on to coach our team, and who was a Suns teammate with twin Tom, and Dudley Bradley, who was better than Charles, the Suns *always* get the worst brother. The Suns are listed second: Van Arsdale Tom 12 seasons, 15.3 pts, 4.2 reb, 2.2 ast, 13.0 PER Dick 12 seasons, 16.4 pts, 4.1 reb, 3.3 ast, 14.4 PER Melchionni Bill 9 seasons, 10.6 pts, 1.7 reb, 6.1 ast, 13.8 PER Gary 2 seasons, 7.8 pts, 2.4 reb, 2.2 ast, 12.6 PER Bradley Charles 3 seasons, 3.2 pts, 1.1 reb, 0.5 ast, 8.4 PER Dudley 8 seasons, 5.2 pts, 1.8 reb, 1.9 ast, 12.0 PER Gondrezick Glen 6 seasons, 5.8 pts, 4.5 reb, 1.4 ast, 13.7 PER Grant 2 seasons, 5 pts, 1.6 reb, 1.3 ast, 11.1 PER Person Chuck 13 seasons, 14.7 pts, 5.1 reb, 2.8 ast, 13.7 PER, 1987 Rookie of the Year Wesley 10 seasons, 11.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 2.7 ast, 14.1 PER Lopez Brook 1 season, 13.0 pts, 8.1 reb, 1.0 ast, 17.9 PER Robin 1 season, 3.2 pts, 2.0 reb, 0.1 ast, 11.6 PER post comment

[25 Jun 2009|10:14pm] The Phoenix Mercury achieved their first road win, 93-87, in Washington. Washington, favored by 2, never led by more than three at 7-4. Phoenix finished the first quarter on a 16-2 run, after which the spread was never threatened. Diana Taurasi and Cappie Pondexter, who combined for 59 points in the Mercury's win last season at the Verizon Center, teamed Thursday for 47 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists. Phoenix, the highest-scoring team in the league, broke out of a scoring slump, making a 180 total for the first time in four games. The Mystics have allowed four straight opponents to shoot 46 percent or better. Phoenix won the rebounding battle 38-34 — it was the second time this season the Mercury have accomplished that, winning straight up and against the spread both times. Washington dropped to 4-2 overall but retain a share of the lead in the WNBA East. Thursday 0-2 Season 32-21-2 post comment

[25 Jun 2009|06:05pm] Not only am I today's biggest loser in the WNBA handicapping community, the Phoenix Suns drafted the least consistent guy available, while Stoudemire's rumored to be coming to join me in the Bay Area. A chess lecture to deliver, then a club championship game to win. Perhaps, if I play harder defense than the Washington Mystics did. *** My aunt Kathleen — Dad's youngest sister, just a few years older than I — introduced me to the magic of vinyl phonograph records. She said her boyfriend was the singer in front of the Jackson 5, and that's the Michael I prefer to remember. I was a high school freshman when "Charlie's Angels" debuted, so, uh, yeah. *** Speaking of the word "consistent", is it redundant to say — for instance — that a basketball player "isn't consistent enough"? One can be consistent or inconsistent. Those words can't be well modified. One can't be too consistent or overly consistent — well, unless one is John Stockton. So I think "not consistent enough" is unacceptable. Another word that irks me in sports is "overshift". The last time I heard an announcer use the simple term "shift" to describe an infield moving right was in regard to Willie McCovey, who couldn't hit a ball the other way if the leftfield grass were a ground rule double. When McCovey came to bat, Hank Greenwald used to call "the McCovey shift." Since then, I only hear idiots calling an "overshift". For an infield to be an OVERshift, it has to go *too far*. Overcooked. Overdone. Overboard. But I know they don't mean it that way. What's so difficult about communicating clearly? I had to *ask* a guy what he meant when he tweeted: "Agler with the defensive adjustment, wright on cappie to start third". OK, I didn't have ask him "Is that written in English?". But I'm serious when I say I didn't know what he meant until he replied: "Agler put Wright on Cappie to start the third...seems easy to understand to me..." It's easy to understand if you remember to include the verb "put". When 3rd grade teachers explain "verbs are action words", the point is that a statement has no life if it doesn't include a verb. post comment

[25 Jun 2009|07:08am] I've watched my Phoenix Suns go through drug scandals, plane crashes, and Robert Horry screwing us from both benches, but I don't think I've ever been as gloomy about the team as I am now. Shaquille O'Neal in exchange for a couple of contracts that can be bought out is done, while the rumor that Amare Stoudemire for Tracy McGrady's expiring contract is swirling. I said a while back that I was resigning myself to the Suns not winning a championship in my lifetime, and now it seems likely they'll not contend again while I'm around. Bob Sarver, take a suggestion, and learn to love the Mercury. I'll look the other way while David Stern engineers the Cleveland/Los Angeles final. Even I think that would be fantastic theater. *** Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics (-3.5, 175.5) Phoenix coach Corey Gaines said he likes it when opponents try to run with the Mercury, because he thinks they'll wear them out. In four of their five wins, the Mercury entered the final period with point differentials between -2 and +4. They won those periods 84-57. In the game that wasn't close, the Mercury extended a 10-point lead to start the 4th to 24. In three losses, Phoenix lost the fourth quarter by 6, 6, and 8. Washington, leading the East, hasn't had a 4-1 start since 2006. The Mystics are 2-0 at home with two different stories in the fourth quarter: Let a 16-point lead dwindle to 6 at the buzzer, and complete a huge second-half comeback to win by 9. In other words, the Mystics succeeded in holding off one rally while finishing their own. Washington has kept a lid on things at home, making totals of 148 and 153, resulting in one over and one under. Phoenix hit 178 and 161 away, while they are coming off two of their lowest-scoring games yet. One early total is 176, on which I'd choose under. That book dangled a spread of Wash -3.5, which I agree will serve its purpose of getting money on both sides. Phoenix won two of the last three meetings at the Verizon Center. The Mercury poured in 98 and 96 in the wins, 69 in the loss, whereas the Mystics scored 90, 86, 83. In the 2008 contest, Taurasi and Pondexter combined for 59. The Mercury are 5-1 when Brooke Smith plays, 0-2 when she does not. As always, Phoenix could turn on the jets and score 120 points Thursday, but that would be a first on the road, while they're trending towards 80s and losses. Picks: Washington, under post comment

[24 Jun 2009|03:22am] I got two unexpected messages Monday. Kate Starbird, a Ph.D student at U. Colorado at Boulder, wrote to say that she loved the Ruby programming language within the Cocoa environment (for developing native Macintosh applications), "until [she] tried to deploy to the rest of [her] research group". Starbird is focusing her research on using social media to teach computer science to girls. Edward Golden, the professional handicapper at the head of HoopsEdge.com, wrote to say that I was "absolutely correct that a very high majority of sports handicapping sites are scams," but "you can find multiple articles and references from industry experts that support my credibility". Which I did, and I'm sold on the guy being solid. And since Dirty at Gambling IQ had already vouched for Golden, I had to apologize for my blanket "den of thieves" statement. He also explained why he doesn't offer writeups with his WNBA picks; I explained that when I said "screw that", I meant to draw attention to my own. The wagering isn't as much fun as the research and the writing. Eye on Gambling asked rhetorically about Golden: "Do you know anyone else out there that knows that much about Northwestern State and UC Santa Barbara?" I laughed at that. I know they were talking about the Gaucho men, but I still thought it was funny. Golden said he didn't know of an independent monitor for WNBA handicappers. I thought I might do that for kicks. *** If HoopsEdge was paying attention to little old me Tuesday, I LOST. Neither of the games I played unfolded as I expected. Chicago Sky 99, Atlanta Dream 98 I said Atlanta -4.5 and over 151.5, believing Atlanta would hit the boards hard, and perhaps win by a dozen against a Chicago team that had yet to win on the road. Visiting Chicago led by 18 points with 11 minutes to play, while shooting 60 percent, but Atlanta went on a 28-10 tear to tie the game 83-83 with 1:19 remaining. The Dream didn't cover -4.5 in the final minute, but relieved their bettors by going to overtime. However, the Sky scored the first four points in OT on a Candice Dupree hook, then a fastbreak layup following an Atlanta turnover. Dupree led Chicago with 20 points and 10 rebounds. The 151.5 total was crossed with 6:22 left in regulation. Chicago maintained their incredible three-point shooting rate, hitting 7-of-15. Atlanta, which won big on the boards in their home wins, lost the rebound race 31-30 in Chicago's first road win of the year. Atlanta, 5-2 on the over, has allowed 192 points in two straight losses. A Dream blogger said rookie Angel McCoughtry's 26 points and 8 rebounds was the best individual performance by an Atlanta player this season. San Antonio Silver Stars 91, Phoenix Mercury 87 The best play on this game was to not play it. I said one couldn't make an informed judgment on it because Phoenix had only played one road game, while San Antonio had only played two with a full roster. Becky Hammon scored 14 points in the fourth quarter to carry host San Antonio. The Stars won the fourth quarter 28-20. In five wins, the Mercury have won four fourth quarters plus one overtime by a combined score of 118-69. In three losses, the Mercury have lost the fourth quarters. Belinda Snell had a career-high 21 plus 4 steals to lead San Antonio. It was San Antonio's first win against the spread; the Spurs were 3-point dogs. The highest-scoring team in the league, Phoenix made their sixth over in eight games. Minnesota Lynx 69, New York Liberty 57 I thought the Liberty would maintain their fine shooting of late, and wasn't certain that the Lynx had regrouped. (In any case, in Augustus's stead is Roneeka Hodges?) But New York couldn't hold on to the ball, or shoot it, so I lost Liberty -3 but they were so icky, under 157 breezed. In Minneapolis, the Liberty scored the first nine points of the second half to cut a Lynx lead to 38-36, but Minnesota went on a 21-2 run, fueled by seven New York turnovers. In total, the Lynx scored 21 points following 20 Liberty turnovers. The Liberty, favored by 3, shot 46-of-86 in their last two games, but 20-of-57 on Tuesday. Shameka Christon shot 9-for-18 for 25 points plus six rebounds to lead New York. Candice Wiggins, expected to carry more of the Lynx scoring load following Seimone Augustus's season-ending injury, led the Lynx with 25 and added a team-high five assists. The Lynx made their first under of the season. Tuesday: 2-2 Season: 32-19-2 Tags for this post: Kate Starbird Kate Starbird Kate Starbird post comment

[23 Jun 2009|08:42am] Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream (-4.5, 151.5) Perhaps Chicago's main hurdle is learning to win on the road. In 2008, the Sky were 4-13 away from UIC Pavilion, and so far 0-3 (also 0-3 ATS). Atlanta lost their first home game Sunday to a New York team that was too hot shooting from the outside. Chicago's 3-point percentage is an unreal 46.7, but in their last two on the road, shot 12-for-32. The Dream have enjoyed huge rebounding margins at home: +18 and +15 in two wins. Chicago isn't a very good rebounding team in spite of two 6-6 centers: their second-best rebounder is a guard. I thought Atlanta might be a eight-point favorite here. If the Dream play well, they'll whack the total, which fell from 154.5, and I thought that odd. Picks: Atlanta, over Phoenix Mercury at San Antonio Silver Stars (+3, 167) The Mercury have benefited from playing six games at home, but face three road games in five nights. Phoenix's only road game could be considered a red flag: an 18-point loss in Sacramento's only win. The Silver Stars are 0-4 against the spread, 1-3 straight up, and — perhaps most pertinent — 1-1 when Becky Hammon isn't playing for the Russian nationals and Vickie Johnson isn't on bereavement. In other words, Wednesday's game is between two teams we've seen very little of: Mercury on the road, Stars with a full roster. Maybe this is a good game to lay off. Picks: None New York at Minnesota (+2, 157) The Liberty and Lynx both experienced a sudden reversal: New York has rebounded with two double-digit wins, while Minnesota appeared poised to run away with the league championship until losing their leading star to injury. The New York starting five is hot, shooting 46-of-86 in two games, including 13-of-26 from deep. The Liberty carried Sunday's game to the over, though it was likelier that home team Atlanta would. Minnesota is 7-0 on the over, but needed Seattle to provide 90 points on Friday. In their first full game without Augustus, the Lynx failed to hit 80 for just the second time. Opted for the under because even if New York maintained its fine shooting against the quick Lynx, Seimone Augustus meant more to the Lynx than her 21 points. Picks: New York, under I was nervous today, especially about the Lynx/Liberty game. The experts at HoopsEdge might be watching to see if I can maintain my win rate. post comment

[22 Jun 2009|05:29am] Look at the faces in the Father's Day crowd behind Whalen and Riley. Thoughtful blue shirt guy looks like my mom's husband (I hope John had a good day). Balding white shirt is looking away from the play. Only two items of Sun gear visible in this crowd shot, which is unacceptable. There's a Sun shirt at the top of the frame, and the blonde girl in the third row wears a Sun jersey. This is what I imagine looking at the yellow shirt man to the girl's right. I think he's her dad, and they took this Father's Day outing so she could watch her team beat the crap out of San Antonio, but he doesn't care for women's basketball and just wants it to end. His daughter has enough interest to wear the jersey (I wonder whose it is) and pay close attention. That guy is the greatest dad in the world. 1 comment|post comment

[22 Jun 2009|12:48am] Sun 71, Silver Stars 58 In their first game without Becky Hammon, the Stars scored half their points from the three-point line. For the second on Sunday, San Antonio visited a Sun team that's best in the league at defending the trey. Connecticut held San Antonio to 4-of-18 shooting treys, but had the Stars maintained their 31% average, two more makes would've resulted in the Stars covering the 10-point spread. The Sun, allowing the fewest points in the league, made their fourth under in six games. Ashja Jones had 19 points for Connecticut. *** Liberty 93, Dream 81 I based my play on Atlanta's inside scoring, and the Dream frontline players came through with 53 points, but New York won the game from the outside, shooting 9-of-18 from outside the arc. Shameka Christon hit 3-of-5 three-pointers and led New York with 17 points plus seven rebounds. The Liberty shot .574 overall while scoring 19 points more than their average, and smashing the 150.5 total. Atlanta is 4-2 on the over. *** Fever 82, Shock 70 Trailing by 17 midway through the third quarter, Indiana outscored Detroit 40-8 over the following 15 minutes. The Fever shot .545 while pushing the Shock to their fourth loss in five games but their first over. Indiana has won four in a row after an 0-2 start, and have covered the spread four times. Kathryn Giapalakis had 23 points and six rebounds for the Fever. *** Storm 93, Mercury 84 The Storm, the league's best team at shooting defense, held the Mercury to a season-low total at home, and Phoenix lost at US Airways Center for the first time. It was Seattle's third game of the season shooting .500 or better, two of which have been in road games. Sue Bird had her second game of the year in which she made nine assists opposite zero turnovers. Bird also scored 21 on 7-of-13. Swin Cash had 22, 7, and 4, and looked 10 years younger than she did last season. If Cash and/or Tanisha Wright produce such "third star" numbers all season, while Seattle maintains its defensive edge, they win the enchilada. Seattle and Phoenix share the lead in the Western Conference with 5-2 marks. Both teams are 5-2 ATS and 5-2 on the overs. *** Sparks 67, Monarchs 47 Sacramento turned in the league's worst offensive night so far this season, while allowing Los Angeles to shoot .459, a touch better than Sacramento's usual .452 allowed, second-worst in the league. Four players were in double figures for the Sparks. Sacramento dropped to 1-5 straight up and ATS. The Monarchs are 3-3 on totals, but the three overs were in games against Phoenix and Minnesota, the highest-scoring teams. The Sparks are are 5-1 on the under, while Lisa Leslie is expected to miss five more games. Sunday: 7-3 Season: 30-17-2 post comment

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